BY THE NUMBERS

I recently applied for life insurance, something I had always assumed to be in-accessible to me. It made me think about, actuarial science,  the predictive power of numbers and the meaning of probability. Of course, being the uni-dimensional freak that I am, I turned this into a reflection on the purpose and meaning of endurance training and racing. Do we train hoping to alter our fate or to work within it? Are we active agents in determining the outcome of our efforts or are we simply surfing on a tsunami of circumstance?

I have the notion that the most one can hope for in an ironman, is to race to one's potential. There are a million ways you can fall below that, but very few scenarios in which you will ever overachieve, or achieve beyond the boundaries of what your training and knowledge of your own physiology has told you you are capable of.  The numbers are there. Just as in actuarial science. There is little chance you can step outside of them.

Inevitability looms in Spinoza-like fashion, as the would-be-knowable with respect to all of our actions; if only we knew what the initial state of a system was in its entirety, and assuming that we knew how to properly quantify subsequent inputs,  there would be no more probability, as the outcome would be assured. Some might view it as a blessing that we don't know enough to know the inevitable. I wonder if we would do all the same things anyways, even if we did? What would we do if we discovered that we really had no choice?

One could invoke quantum mechanics as proof that things can never be fully known or predicted. This view of the universe can help those who believe in miracles, quantum leaps and mystery to cling to their need for the unknown. But the fact of the matter is that, even in a quantum universe, the numbers or outcomes in a stable system tend to stay, well, stable. Newton's laws of motion put us in a tight, but re-assuring box.

It is an interesting question to ask yourself whether foreknowledge of the outcome of our undertakings would render them not worth doing? From a practical standpoint, we don't have "all the numbers" in front of us about anything, so it seems that our task in life is to embrace process, minimize anxiety about the future (or enjoy it as anticipation), and construct a satisfactory  post-hoc narrative about what has happened. Then we die.

Recently, I have found my answer, with respect to training, and to a large extent, life itself. I say "yes", to whatever happens. I strive to be "here" to witness it fully. I try to understand "why" things happen, why I do things. Would I "do" it all as happily if I knew for certain it was all pre-determined, the outcome assured and beyond my control? Of course I would. These are not my ideas, they are a blend of Zen Bhuddism and my own particular reading of Spinoza, but I feel them deeply and they resonate within me.

One year ago, I was blogging about the same things, via Camus, and Sisyphus. It seems that winter has predictable effects on my philosophical nature. Hmmmm.

Making a switch in my front  chain-rings has caused some confusion to my power meter. Not trusting your power meter is like not trusting your spouse. It can be life altering.  After a few calibrations, my numbers seem closer to home, but my universe is forever altered, even by a little bit, I must adjust to new feedback, new numbers, new cadences and a different riding experience. This is probably good, but it highlights how arbitrary power numbers really are. The absolute numbers, at the end of the day, can change, and we will accomodate, but consistency is important. Too many quantum shifts in the grid or matrix causes instability, creates uncertainty and anxiety; the power-based training analogy of madness.

Numbers seem so absolute, and perhaps they are. But existentially, they move so fast as to blur into a wonderfully vague image, with blurry edges, pregnant with meaning. There I find the joy of training, of living. And yes, training is living, at least for me. There is no difference between the world in my head, the world I train in, and what my wife calls "real life".

"as i flow through your life...a thousand oceans i have flown...the echo of a point in time...a thousand warriors i have known...all your life...shadows of another day".